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Prediction for CME (2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-28T15:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18106/-1
CME Note: Significant CME SW in COR2A and full halo in C2/C3. Source: X1.0 class flare from AR 2887 at S26W4 peaking at 2021-10-28T15:35Z and an associated significant eruption (with a EUV wave) seen in AIA 193/171/304 and EUVI A 195/304 starting 2021-10-28T15:25Z. CME arrival marked by sudden increase in magnetic field and solar wind speed and density, with B total briefly reaching 13 nT. The flux rope is clearly seen on the next day.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-31T09:13Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-31T11:28Z
Prediction Method: SPM
Prediction Method Note:
Initial shock speed: 1109 km/s
Solar wind speed: 350 km/s
Duration time: 0.5 hrs (default)
Lead Time: 54.70 hour(s)
Difference: -2.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2021-10-29T02:31Z
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