CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-28T15:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18106/-1
CME Note: Significant CME SW in COR2A and full halo in C2/C3. Source: X1.0 class flare from AR 2887 at S26W4 peaking at 2021-10-28T15:35Z and an associated significant eruption (with a EUV wave) seen in AIA 193/171/304 and EUVI A 195/304 starting 2021-10-28T15:25Z. CME arrival marked by sudden increase in magnetic field and solar wind speed and density, with B total briefly reaching 13 nT. The flux rope is clearly seen on the next day.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-31T09:13Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-31T11:28Z
Prediction Method: SPM
Prediction Method Note:

Initial shock speed: 1109 km/s
Solar wind speed: 350 km/s
Duration time: 0.5 hrs (default)

Lead Time: 54.70 hour(s)
Difference: -2.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2021-10-29T02:31Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement